000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191451
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
1500 UTC THU OCT 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 107.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 107.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 108.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 109.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.8N 107.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 107.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 19/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART