000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190251
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY