000
WTPZ22 KNHC 160236
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072023
0300 UTC WED AUG 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 35NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.6N 131.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.9N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 152.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 124.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN