000
WTPZ22 KNHC 150835
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 124.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   5SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.2N 132.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BERG