000
WTPZ22 KNHC 140845
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072023
0900 UTC MON AUG 14 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 124.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 127.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 130.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.0N 136.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 117.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN