000
WTPZ22 KNHC 140243
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072023
0300 UTC MON AUG 14 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 121.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 126.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 129.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 134.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 117.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN