000 WTPZ22 KNHC 090251 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 0300 UTC FRI SEP 09 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF LORETO ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER * NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 115.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 390SE 240SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 115.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.8N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.4N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 28.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 115.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH