312 WTPZ22 KNHC 080246 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 0300 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN QUINTIN TO ENSENADA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO ENSENADA * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST OF BAJA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ENSENADA TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 113.0W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 360SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 113.0W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.6N 119.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.5N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 113.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH