000 WTPZ22 KNHC 070855 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 0900 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS NORTHWARD TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE * NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.0W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 112.0W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.7N 116.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 112.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN