000
WTPZ22 KNHC 052056
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
2100 UTC MON SEP 05 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LORETO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.4N 113.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N 114.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.8N 116.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.6N 119.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 107.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI