000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191447
TCMEP2

HURRICANE PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
1500 UTC MON SEP 19 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN QUINTIN...MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EUGENIA TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.1N 116.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.3N 116.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.9N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART