000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
1500 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 112.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 114.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 23.7N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS