000
WTPZ22 KNHC 052038
TCMEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2015

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  70SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT.......175NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...175NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 110.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 111.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.8N 113.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 107.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA