000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220831
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 102.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 102.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 102.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 103.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 102.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH