000
WTPZ22 KNHC 212035
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
2100 UTC MON OCT 21 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 102.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 102.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.2N 103.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 102.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN