000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211431
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 102.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 102.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 15.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 102.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN