000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
1500 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 101.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 101.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.9N 102.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 101.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN