000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200831
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
0900 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.2W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.2W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.1N 101.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 102.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 102.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.2N 102.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 101.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA