000
WTPZ22 KNHC 052044
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING FOR
LORENA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.3N 107.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N 110.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 106.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH