000
WTPZ22 KNHC 051435
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013
1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AQUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AQUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.4N 109.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.3N 110.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.9N 111.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE