000
WTPZ22 KNHC 091436
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
1500 UTC MON AUG 09 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.4N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.1N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 112.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE