000
WTPZ22 KNHC 082035
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.0N 111.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.8N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 16.7N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE