000
WTPZ22 KNHC 081435
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
1500 UTC SUN AUG 08 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.1N 113.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.1N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW  35NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.6N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE