000
WTPZ22 KNHC 070245
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
0300 UTC SAT AUG 07 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE  45SE   0SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.8N 107.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 106.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN