000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230234
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO CABO
SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 111.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE  25SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 111.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 112.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.6N 111.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.1N 110.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.7N 110.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.5N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 109.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 111.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA