000
WTPZ22 KNHC 222028
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2007
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN
LUCAS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  35SE  30SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 112.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 112.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.2N 112.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 110.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 26.0N 110.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 112.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI