000
WTPZ22 KNHC 211453
TCMEP2
HURRICANE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IVO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 113.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE  10SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  65SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  90SE  75SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 113.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.4N 113.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 113.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI