000
WTPZ22 KNHC 210831
TCMEP2
HURRICANE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
0900 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IVO.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE  10SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  65SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  90SE  75SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 113.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 113.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  10SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  65SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 112.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 111.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 113.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN