000
WTPZ22 KNHC 191431
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
1500 UTC WED SEP 19 2007
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 111.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 111.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 113.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 111.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN