000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190833
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
0900 UTC WED SEP 19 2007
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.4N 111.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.4N 112.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 113.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 110.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH