000
WTPZ21 KNHC 081452
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 121.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 450SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 121.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 120.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.7N 123.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 125.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.3N 127.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 128.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.3N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.8N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 121.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN