000
WTPZ21 KNHC 051451
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 107.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 107.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.4N 108.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.1N 110.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 129.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 107.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE