000
WTPZ21 KNHC 072037
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN