000
WTPZ21 KNHC 261448
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019
1500 UTC WED JUN 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 117.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.4N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN