000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151432
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017
1500 UTC SAT JUL 15 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 123.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 123.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 122.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.5N 124.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.3N 127.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.8N 131.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.3N 135.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 141.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY