000
WTPZ21 KNHC 031452
TCMEP1

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC MON NOV 03 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
VANCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 110.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.6N 110.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 107.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN