000
WTPZ21 KNHC 021437
TCMEP1

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
1500 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 107.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 107.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 107.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH