000
WTPZ21 KNHC 312054
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
2100 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.4W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 101.4W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 101.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z  9.3N 102.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z  9.6N 104.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.7N 108.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N 106.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.5N 101.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE