000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160255 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO EL POCITO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA * EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.2N 112.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.7N 112.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.1N 113.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH