000
WTPZ21 KNHC 142032
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.4N 115.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 29.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI