000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160234
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
0300 UTC SUN OCT 16 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 108.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.0N 108.8W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.2N 109.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 13.0N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 107.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG