000
WTPZ21 KNHC 140838
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
0900 UTC FRI OCT 14 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 106.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 106.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 106.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.7N 107.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 106.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE