000
WTPZ21 KNHC 111438
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
1500 UTC TUE OCT 11 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 210SE  60SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 115.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 107.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.6N 105.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 16.5N 104.3W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 115.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN