000
WTPZ21 KNHC 102030
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 116.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 116.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.9N 115.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.1N 109.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.3N 106.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 116.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN