000
WTPZ21 KNHC 092031
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.3W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.3W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 117.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 115.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN