000
WTPZ21 KNHC 070838
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
0900 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.8W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.8W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 119.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.1N 120.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.4N 120.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.4N 119.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.4N 119.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 119.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG