000
WTPZ21 KNHC 070249
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 118.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.1N 119.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 15.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 119.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN