000
WTPZ21 KNHC 062030
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 117.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 117.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.9N 118.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.6N 118.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 117.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH