000
WTPZ21 KNHC 111443
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
1500 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE  75SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 103.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.1N 104.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.3N 105.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA