000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151439
TCMEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.3W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 282 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.3W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.9N 116.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.6N 121.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.8N 126.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE  45SE  45SW  55NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 17.7N 130.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.5N 134.9W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 112.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BANN